Forecasting Asia: Strategic Insight for the Year Ahead
Event Sponsors
With an unprecedented leadership change in China set to occur in 2012 (seven of the nine Politburo Standing Committee are on track to retire), many questions are raised about possible changes to the political and violent risk environment. Operating in Chine safely and profitably necessitates a close and detailed analysis to forecast commercial opportunities, and pitfalls, for foreign companies. While China is often viewed as a guaranteed arenas for commercial success in the short term, the long term prospects are somewhat murkier.
Looking beyond China, other countries in Asia hold their own challenges for foreign companies. What is the potential for an insurgency in Thailand, how will Pakistan’s government deal with its ongoing militant threat and how will the policy agenda of the Philippines’ new leader, Aquino, affect the operating environment for foreign companies. In every country, key influence groups will determine forward risk. The challenge is identifying the right players, and applying tested analysis methodology to determine the future operating environment, whether in the 30-day, one-year, three-year, or even 20-year outlook.
In this presentation, Exclusive Analysis maps the strategic outlook for China, Thailand, Pakistan and the Philippines. We examine the most likely scenarios for future operating environments in these countries, giving business development, strategy and security teams actionable forecasts as inputs to their strategic planning.
The Presenter
Rachel Shoemaker - Head of Asia Forecasting
Geographical Expertise: Asia
Specialist Subjects: Political Risk, Chinese Politics and negotiation analysis
Languages: Mandarin
Rachel is Head of Asia Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis, responsible for the company’s analytical view. She has an MA in International Politics and China Studies (John Hopkins University) BA in Diplomacy and World Affairs (Occidental College). Prior to joining Exclusive Analysis, Rachel worked in China for four years in the fields of media research and legal development. She has also advised on their China strategy and acted as a facilitator at meetings with Chinese government officials. Rachel has extensively researched Chinese negotiation and cross-strait issues.
Discussion Topics
The Presentation will look to provide forecasts that will answer the following questions:
China
- Will China’s new generation of leaders be more pro-business that their predecessors and will they promote the growth and competitiveness of Chinese multinational companies in order to reduce the present dominance of Western multinationals in China?
- Will they have a bias towards the west or east provinces, where they have previously held office?
- Will the communist party’s leadership after 2012 increase development efforts in these regions?
- What are the prospects for short term commercial gain for foreign operators in the technology, manufacturing, biotechnology, construction and retail sectors versus long term potential?
- Where will labour strikes and protests more likely to take place and in which sectors?
Thailand
- What are the future scenarios for elections? Will there be a stable government?
- Will there be a militant insurgency? If so, how will this affect the operating environment?
- Will there be another outbreak of significant violent civil unrest and where will it play out?
Philippines
- With a new President sworn in June 2010 how will Aquino’s little known policies evolve? Will he revise current contacts, will he support mining over environmental issues and will he be able to negotiate with the separatist rebels who pose an ongoing terrorist threat?
Pakistan
- What are the risks of a military coup in 2010 and what are the potential scenarios for war?
- Global jihad in Pakistan. The reality.
Exclusive Analysis is a specialist intelligence company that forecast commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide. We leverage our source network and methodology to deliver to deliver accurate, decision-ready forecast to a broad range of sectors. These include insurance and reinsurance, financial services, shipping, banking, oil and gas, aviation, mining, cargo and logistics, governments, NGOs and media.
Forecasting Asia: Strategic Insight f...
Date and Time
Wednesday Jun 30, 2010
6:00 PM - 8:00 PM PDT
Wednesday 30th June 2010
6pm - Registration & drinks reception
6.30pm - Presentation
7pm - Q and A
7.15pm - Drinks and canapes
Location
Trader Vic’s Suites4261 El Camino RealPalo Alto, CA 94306
Fees/Admission
Members - ComplimentaryNon-Members & Guests - $25
Website
Contact Information
Contact Zoe at the BABC Office; Tel: +1 415-296-9649, or Email:
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